Wiki source for Fantastic Online Soccer Gambling Agent Guidebook 8772477231542
How Exactly To identify value within your bets? That is the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the most effective Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and just how they offer a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, where, as a result of the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short within any event.
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A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not seem to be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on [[http://physiotherapy.tagoremch.edu.in/profile/i9bet simply click the following page]] bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% as well as the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
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Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by any individual bookmaker as they would in theory be certain to lose on the event, they are "under round" . The losing percentage will be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this doesn't happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that would give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers could differ to the extent you could find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. This means that you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you will make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.
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Identifying value
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From the above mentioned data it's fairly obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there is no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the greatest value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so might be the most effective value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That's your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you assess the prospects of each outcome just isn't because of this article. It deserves more in depth treatment than can be given here where we are handling bookmakers' margins and value bets.
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Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the most effective odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should be given to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
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Stake allocation
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There can be occasions when it's necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include two of the 3 possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds are already exaggerated. It's very seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises though the illustration is the best one to show how you can use percentages.
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It's generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the top odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is yet another matter. Because of this you may need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the chances of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the different bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a significant part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and adding to your betting profits.
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---
---
---
---
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or perhaps the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not seem to be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on [[http://physiotherapy.tagoremch.edu.in/profile/i9bet simply click the following page]] bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% as well as the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
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Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by any individual bookmaker as they would in theory be certain to lose on the event, they are "under round" . The losing percentage will be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this doesn't happen. Individual bookmakers don't offer odds on the possible outcomes that would give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers could differ to the extent you could find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. This means that you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you will make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.
---
---
---
---
---
---
Identifying value
---
---
---
---
---
---
From the above mentioned data it's fairly obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there is no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the greatest value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so might be the most effective value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That's your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you assess the prospects of each outcome just isn't because of this article. It deserves more in depth treatment than can be given here where we are handling bookmakers' margins and value bets.
---
---
---
---
---
---
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the most effective odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should be given to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
---
---
---
---
---
---
Stake allocation
---
---
---
---
---
---
There can be occasions when it's necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include two of the 3 possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds are already exaggerated. It's very seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises though the illustration is the best one to show how you can use percentages.
---
---
---
---
---
---
It's generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the top odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is yet another matter. Because of this you may need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the chances of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the different bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a significant part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and adding to your betting profits.
